[OKRA] Recycling Markets 2024: A Year of Some Big Ups and Downs - Chaz Miller

[Ellen Bussert]

[image: image.png]

How did your recycling programs go in 2024?  Read Chaz Miller's prospective
review of the recycling industry in 2024.



[image: image.png]
Recycling Markets 2024: A Year of Some Big Ups and Downs

When I speak about recycling markets, I always start with a picture of full
recycling bins. I ask the audience what’s in the bins. The answer is
simple. Raw materials looking for a buyer. Buyers want consistent quality
and consistent quantities from their sellers. Both want an acceptable price.
[image: Picture of Chaz Miller]
<https://www.waste360.com/author/chaz-miller>
Chaz Miller  <https://www.waste360.com/author/chaz-miller>, Semi-retired,
40-year veteran of the waste and recycling industry

December 19, 2024
5 Min Read
blackday / Alamy Stock Photo

When I speak about recycling markets, I always start with a picture of full
recycling bins. I ask the audience what’s in the bins. The answer is
simple. Raw materials looking for a buyer. Buyers want consistent quality
and consistent quantities from their sellers. Both want an acceptable price.

We recycle for many reasons. We can save resources, lower greenhouse gas
emissions, create jobs, etc. But if we don’t have buyers for those
materials, we won’t achieve those goals. We recycle only when our
“discards” are turned into new products.

Anyone who runs a recycling program learns this reality very quickly. They
learn that recyclables are commodities whose prices fluctuate based on the
economy and supply demand for each raw material. They learn that markets
are hot some years, cold others and like 2024, they can go both ways.

The good news? Comparing mid-December national average prices for curbside
recyclables with those a year ago shows higher prices for PET beverage
bottles, natural HDPE containers (mostly milk jugs), polypropylene packages
(mostly for dairy products), aluminum cans and residential mixed paper
(RMP). On the downside, prices for colored HDPE (laundry detergent, shampoo
and a host of other consumer products), steel cans and old corrugated
containers (OCC aka “cardboard” boxes) were lower.

The reasons for these ups and downs vary widely. Let’s start with the
paper, the most important raw material in our bins by weight and volume.
Paper’s two-year rise and recent decline is one big 2024 markets story.
Prices for both OCC and RMP started rising in December 2022 as new recycled
content capacity unleashed demand. At that time, OCC’s national average was
a bit above $29 a ton while RMP was “sold” at negative $1 a ton. This
summer, OCC hit a high slightly over $107 a ton and RMP was at $70. In the
fall, they finally started sliding down. Their decline was inevitable as
supply finally outpaced demand. OCC’s national average is now $72.81 per
ton. It’s slightly lower than a year ago but still much higher than two
years ago. The same with RMP, now at $40.25 per ton. Prices for both would
be a bit higher if export markets weren’t so soft. (All prices are from
RecyclingMarkets.net <https://www.recyclingmarkets.net/>).

Weaker prices for both paper grades are normal in the late fall and winter.
Mills have made the boxes needed for holiday shopping. Many operate on a
lower production schedule and take maintenance downtime production until
box demand comes back. I expect paper to return to its normal cycle with
prices beginning to rise in February or March as demand increases and
supply is lower.

Prices for three plastics, PET, natural HDPE and PP were higher while
colored HDPE was lower. Each resin has unique markets. PET bottle demand
rises in the spring when companies begin making more bottles in
anticipation of warm weather and higher beverage sales. Lower winter and
spring supply pushes recycled PET prices up. That normally lasts until
early August when production goes down in anticipation of lower beverage
demand in the colder months. Higher supplies and lower demand drive prices
down. Prices did go down but remain higher than normal for this time of
year. PET’s national price in mid-December was 15.41 cents per pound, up
from 11.03 cents. Export demand from Mexico helped keep the price higher
than normal.

Natural HDPE’s dramatic price rise is another big 2024 markets story.  The
current national average price of 66.19 cents a pound is more than double
where it was a year ago. Last year’s price was near the bottom of an epic
fall that began in May 2023 when natural HDPE was a little over 75 cents a
pound. By July it had fallen by 53 cents. Apparently, a brand that used its
recycled content budget on one product sold it to new buyers who had no
interest in recycled content. The price slowly rebounded and began surging
this summer. Many consumer product companies appear to be in a last-minute
rush to meet their recycled content goals. They value natural HDPE resin
because it can be dyed any color. Unless brand demand remains steady, the
price is likely to go down in the winter.

Polypropylene is also up this year with a national average price of 9.06
cents a pound, up from just under 5 cents a year ago. Demand appears to be
driven by new polypropylene recycling capacity which needs to build up
supply lines.

Colored HDPE went down dramatically in 2024. This third big markets story
has a mid-December national average price of only 5.44 cents per pound,
down substantially from 18.31 cents a year ago. Because the dye used to
color HDPE resin cannot be taken out of the resin, most colored HDPE is
used to make water and sewage pipes. Colored HDPE prices tend to rise and
fall with new housing and other construction activity. New construction
starts are highest in the spring as are colored HDPE prices.

That leaves us with the two metals. Aluminum cans, like natural HDPE, are
going gangbusters. Their national average price is 86.88 cents per pound
while was 61.13 cents last year.  Aluminum cans normally follow the same
supply-demand cycle as PET bottles. Prices rise in the spring and fall in
midsummer. This year, higher demand from new recycled can sheet capacity
building up its supply lines and increased use of aluminum cans for
non-alcoholic beverages has driven prices up in the face of lower winter
supply.

Steel cans are on a downswing, falling from $210.31 per ton to 173.75.
Construction activity is off. In addition, China, the world’s largest
steelmaker, has a weak economy. It is accused of flooding world markets
with steel. While can prices have gone up a bit recently, I don’t expect a
quick return to last year’s prices.

Next year will be interesting. Will the US economy continue to grow? Will
East Coast dockworkers go on strike in January? Will the construction
industry have a strong second quarter? What about the impact of threatened
tariffs? Stayed tuned.

Read more about:
Recycling <https://www.waste360.com/keyword/recycling>
About the Author
[image: Chaz Miller] <https://www.waste360.com/author/chaz-miller>

Chaz Miller
<https://www.waste360.com/author/chaz-miller>

Semi-retired, 40-year veteran of the waste and recycling industry

Chaz Miller is a longtime veteran of the waste and recycling industry.
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